The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Most of the variance is explained by the PIT, where we are $3.7 billion higher than the administration over the three fiscal years combined. Most of that difference appears to be in capital gains and wages.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3830

The 2018-19 Budget: The May Revision—Funding to Address Homelessness

May 12, 2018 - If voters approve NPLH, the administration intends to award $262  million each year for seven years. These awards would start near the end of 2018. Based on typical costs for affordable housing development, these awards probably would fund roughly 20,000 supportive housing units.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3831

The 2018-19 Budget: Initial Comments on the May Revision

May 12, 2018 - School and community spending (under the provisions of Proposition  98) is $1.3  billion higher across the three fiscal years. Three main factors explain this increase. First, higher revenue requires the state to make larger payments to schools and community colleges in each year of the period.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3832

The 2018-19 Budget: California Earned Income Tax Credit Education and Outreach

May 8, 2018 - In addition, eligible filers must be a U.S. citizen or resident alien and be at least age 25 if they do not have a qualifying child (these last two restrictions are based on the federal EITC). California Expanded State EITC in 2017.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3826

The 2018-19 Budget: A Guide to Understanding Potential Changes in the Proposition 98 Guarantee

May 7, 2018 - The state budget typically provides an annual COLA for certain school and community college programs. State law links this COLA to a national price index developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (a division of the U.S.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3823

The 2018-19 Budget: Review of Fair Political Practices Commission Budget and Workload

May 7, 2018 - FPPC indicates that the current agreement with the county (established in 2014‑15) specifies that the county pay FPPC a lump sum payment of $55,000 at the beginning of each calendar year to pay for a base amount of FPPC staff time and FPPC bills the county at a specified hourly rate for additional time.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3822

The 2018-19 Budget: A Guide to Understanding Potential Changes in the Proposition 98 Guarantee [Publication Details]

May 7, 2018 - This post provides an update on the key factors affecting estimates of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee for 2017-18 and 2018-19 and describes how the guarantee could change relative to estimates in the Governor’s January budget. The post is intended as a planning guide to help the Legislature understand the relationship between changing inputs and the minimum guarantee over the coming year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3823

Looking at the Early Effects of Federal Tax Changes on Housing [EconTax Blog]

May 4, 2018 - The graph below shows year-over-year changes in home sales on a quarterly basis for our two groups of zip codes. As this graph shows, home sales in the two groups of zip codes have tended to track together in recent years.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/281

Building Permits Update: March 2018 [EconTax Blog]

May 3, 2018 - Single family homes (13,677) have made up about half of the statewide total so far this year, as they have in recent years. Single family permits are up 21 percent in the first thr ee months of 2018 compared to 2017.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/279

The 2018-19 Budget: Update on State Funding for K-12 School Facilities

May 3, 2018 - The state typically contributes 60  percent of modernization costs for the renovation of facilities at least 25  years old. For both types of projects, the state can contribute up to 100  percent of project costs if districts face challenges in raising their local shares.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3821