New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - All state spending into the economy —whether it goes toward health care, corrections, schools, or tax rebates —must be funded with revenue extracted from the economy. Reserves Offer Insurance Against Downside Risk By far, the biggest fiscal threat posed by inflation is its propensity to raise the risk of a recession.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

November 2022 Cap-and-Trade Auction Update [EconTax Blog]

Dec 14, 2022 - Alternatively, should the upcoming auctions generate significantly less revenue than was assumed in this year ’s budget package, this “extra ” funding could be used to help make up the difference and sustain planned GGRF reserve levels or support for GGRF-funded programs in the current year.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/763

Redesigning California's Adult Education Funding Model [Publication Details]

Dec 13, 2022 - In this brief, we provide background on adult education funding, assess the current funding model, and offer recommendations to improve it.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4652

Redesigning California's Adult Education Funding Model

Dec 13, 2022 - The most typical student is female, Hispanic, low income, and between 25 and 45 years old. Adult schools (primarily through school districts) and community colleges are the main providers of adult education in California.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4652

October Tax Collections [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2022 - Specifically, income tax withholding came in 7 percent below the Budget Act projection for October and is down 10 percent from projections for the fiscal year to date. Similarly, sales tax collections are down 8 per cent from projections for the fiscal year to date.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/761

Why Has Income Tax Withholding Lagged, Despite Job Growth? [EconTax Blog]

Nov 16, 2022 - PIT Withholding Down from Last Year. The graph below compares the running total of PIT withholding payments since the start of the 2022-23 fiscal year relative to the same period last year. To-date, personal income tax withholding is $575 million lower (2.2 percent) than last year.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/759

How Does the October Inflation Report Change Our Outlook? [EconTax Blog]

Nov 16, 2022 - At its current year-over-year rate of 6.3 percent, core inflation needs to come down about 4 percentage points to return to historical norms, a much more siz able gap than the typical 0.2 percentage point decrease seen after prior large monthly drops.      
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/760

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 16, 2022 - Update (11/22/22): The original version of this report identified a $25 billion —instead of a $24 billion —budget problem, which reflected an error in the way we accounted for student housing grant program funding.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4646

The 2023-24 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges [Publication Details]

Nov 16, 2022 - The 2023-24 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges [Publication Details] The 2023-24 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges Format: HTML Description: Each year, the state calculates a “minimum guarantee” for school and community college funding based upon a set of formulas established by Proposition 98 (1988).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4648

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - On the other hand, we do reflect spending on school facilities of $2  billion in 2023 ‑24 and $875  million in 2024 ‑25, and broadband spending of $300  million in 2023 ‑24 and $250  million in 2024 ‑25, in which enacted legislative intent language met our criteria.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646