2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Sep 20, 2021 - Our current best estimate is that the amount of unanticipated revenue likely will fall somewhere between $5 billion and $25 billion. As reflected by the width of this range, with so much of the fiscal year ahead of us there remains significant uncertainty about how much the state ultimately will collect.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/698

What Do Unanticipated Revenues Mean for the Surplus? [EconTax Blog]

Sep 20, 2021 - They are: Proposition 98: Spending on Schools and Community Colleges. The Proposition 98 formulas determine the minimum amount the state must spend on schools and community colleges each year. The formulas account for changes in General Fund revenue as well as other inputs, such as changes in school enrollment and the level of spending on schools and community colleges in the previous year.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/697

A New Method For Current Year Revenue Forecasting [EconTax Blog]

Sep 20, 2021 - For example, our estimates suggest that an updated forecast based on data available up through October was about 40 percent more accurate than the formal forecasts made in May of the same calendar year.    
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/696

August 2021 Jobs Report [EconTax Blog]

Sep 17, 2021 - More than half the gain came from the local government sector: August hiring was much higher than normal, as most California public schools are operating in person this academic year after being partially or fully remote last year.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/695

Changes in California State University General Fund Spending [EdBudget]

Sep 10, 2021 - The state intends to provide CSU an additional $225 million in each of the subsequent two years for this purpose. e These spending increases are offset by the removal of $20 million in prior-year, one-time funds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/530

California Community Colleges Proposition 98 Spending by Program [EdBudget]

Sep 9, 2021 - California Community Colleges Proposition 98 Spending by Program [EdBudget]     e Reflects funding for various programs with less than $2 million in ongoing funding (Academic Senate, district financial crisis oversight, Middle College High School, and part-time faculty health insurance).
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/525

Building Permits Update: July 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Sep 7, 2021 - Total permits in 2021 year to date are 28 percent above the same months in 2020. July ’s total of 5,377 single family permits again exceeded the recent average for the month, although the last three months have been closer to the recent monthly average than the year ’s first four months were.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/693

Income Tax Withholding Tracker: August 1 - August 27 [EconTax Blog]

Sep 7, 2021 - Through the 25th, federal withholding was up 18.9 percent from last year, slightly below the state ’s pace.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/692

MOU Fiscal Analysis: Bargaining Unit 8 (Firefighters)

Sep 7, 2021 - Specifically, Section 19829.5 of the Government Code specifies that CalHR “shall provide a memorandum of understanding pursuant to Section 3517.5 to the Legislative Analyst who shall have 10 calendar days from the date the tentative agreement is received to issue a fiscal analysis to the Legislature. […] The memorandum of understanding shall not be subject to legislative
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4451

Districts' Pension Contribution Rates and Amounts [EdBudget]

Sep 1, 2021 - Districts' Pension Contribution Rates and Amounts [EdBudget]     a Projections for 2022-23 through 2024-25 are based on CalSTRS' and CalPERS' most recent actuarial valuations (for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2020).
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/544