Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - Prudence dictates that only when baseline projections show operating surpluses (annual revenues exceeding expenditures) can new ongoing commitments or tax reductions be considered. Conversely, if projections indicate a looming structural deficit, the estimates are helpful in functioning as an early warning system.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - In  the budget window, for example, the administration proposes: (1)  reverting $71  million in unused EDDNext project funding early, and (2)  modifying In ‑Home Supportive Services (IHSS) eligibility to align with Medi ‑Cal, which provides $86  million in savings).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Across the budget window (2023-24 to 2025-26), we estimate the budget condition improves by nearly $2  billion relative to the administration ’s projections. This modest improvement reflects our somewhat higher revenue estimates, partially offset by slightly higher projected spending.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - At this time, our assessment is based on the administration ’s revenue projections and spending estimates. In  the coming days, we will analyze the plan in more detail, provide additional comments in hearing testimony, and update our multiyear forecast of the budget ’s condition using our own projections and estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 5, 2020 - As a condition of receiving the funding, counties must show that they are in com pliance with state and federal public health requirements. Budget Provides $600   Million for Project Homekey and Related Services.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4263