How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The dot-com example below illustrates this pattern. In practice, this means the state could see continued but weakened revenue growth for some time after a correction before the outlook turns clearly negative.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The dot-com example below illustrates this pattern. In practice, this means the state could see continued but weakened revenue growth for some time after a correction before the outlook turns clearly negative.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - The 2025-26 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook The 2025 ‑26 Budget Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook Summary. This post describes our fiscal outlook for General Fund spending in Medi-Cal. Under our outlook, General Fund support grows from the 2024 ‑25 enacted level of $35  billion to $48.8  billion in 2028 ‑29 —an average annual rate of growth of 8.6  percent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4941

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - We discuss our economic and revenue outlook in greater detail here: The 2023‑24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook . Lower revenues result in a larger budget problem. Lower Constitutional Requirements. Coupled with our lower revenue estimates, we  also estimate that spending on constitutional requirements is correspondingly lower by $4.8  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

California's Spring Fiscal Outlook Press Availability Video Call - The 2020-21 Budget: California's Spring Fiscal Outlook [Video]

California's Spring Fiscal Outlook Press Availability Video Call - The 2020-21 Budget: California's Spring Fiscal Outlook [Video] Search LAO Videos California 's Spring Fiscal Outlook Press Availability Video Call May 8, 2020 Legislative Analyst Gabriel Petek hosts a video call with members of the press after the release of the LAO 's report The 2020-21 Budget: California's Spring Fiscal Outlook . 
https://lao.ca.gov/Videos/Player?playlistId=114

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary The Fiscal Outlook gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state ’s budget condition for the 2025 ‑26 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2019-20 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook

May 12, 2019 - The 2019-20 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook The 2019-20 May Revision LAO Revenue Outlook This post details our General Fund revenue outlook for 2017 ‑18 through 2022 ‑23. Our estimates of General Fund revenues and transfers for the “budget window ” —2017 ‑18 through 2019 ‑20 —are $774  million (0.2  percent) above the administration ’s May 2019 revenue forecast.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4037

The 2019-20 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2019 - The 2019-20 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook The 2019-20 May Revision LAO Economic Outlook Our office just released a summary of our updated state fiscal outlook for the May Revision. Our fiscal outlook is premised on a set of economic assumptions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4036

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - As we described in our November Fiscal Outlook , the recent stronger-than-expected revenue trends are almost entirely explained by the personal income tax (PIT), which has seen double digit growth this year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104