California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - Ordered by bill number. Major Features of the 2024‑25 Spending Plan This section briefly describes the major spending actions in the 2024 ‑25 budget package, including some actions that were part of the early action package.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922

The 2024-25 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 2, 2024 - Additionally, the budget package includes legislation allowing DGS to use job order contracting for public works projects. Specifically, it would allow DGS to enter into competitively bid, fixed price, indefinite quantity contracts for certain public works.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4934

The 2024-25 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 2, 2024 - Additionally, the budget package includes legislation allowing DGS to use job order contracting for public works projects. Specifically, it would allow DGS to enter into competitively bid, fixed price, indefinite quantity contracts for certain public works.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4934/governors-office-of-emergency-services

The 2023-24 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Estimates

Feb 1, 2023 - One concern is whether or not the state can reduce additional exclud ed spending in order to address the budget problem without incurring a SAL requirement. The administration ’s estimates suggest the Legislature could reduce some additional excluded spending in 2022-23 or 2023-24.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4667

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - For example, in 2026 ‑27, revenues would need to be at least $11  billion higher than the May Revision forecast in order for the budget to be balanced. Overall, this figure shows that the state budget is likely balanced over the next couple of years, but a budget problem becomes more likely in later years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907