Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

Nov 14, 2018 - Sometime After 2022 ‑23 assuming neither the optional deposit nor the deposit made under the rules of Proposition  58 count. The Legislature ’s policy appears to be that both the optional deposit and Proposition  58 deposit should count toward the 10  percent threshold.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3900

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - Specifically, our forecast is about $24 billion below the Governor’s budget across 2022‑23 to 2024‑25. All else equal, this means the budget problem is likely to be higher at the time of the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Appendix 4: Large One-Time and Temporary Augmentations Transportation Appendix 4, Figure 1 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Business and Labor General Fund (In millions) Begin new information
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - We Estimate the Administration Solved a Larger Budget Problem —$58   Billion. While the Governor cited a budget problem of $38  billion, we estimate the administration solved a budget problem of $58  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - This investment return experience is well above CalSTRS ’ assumed annual rate of 7 percent. State ’s Contribution Rate Now Projected to Dramatically Decrease, Resulting in Annual General Fund Savings of Billions of Dollars.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Figure  2, at the end of this post, lists the major economic variables under our new moderate growth scenario through 2022. As we discussed in November, accurately predicting the future path of the economy is not possible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829