California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Between 2024 ‑25 and 2027 ‑27, HHS programs grow at an average annual rate of 5.1  percent under our projections, compared to 8  percent under the administration ’s estimates. As we have commented in the past, our office has little insight into the components of, or assumptions underlying, the administration ’s projections in HHS.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - After setting aside disbursements and Governor ’s budget proposals, we estimate the state possibly could pull back and reduce one-time and temporary augmentations by as much as $6.4  billion in 2023 ‑24, $4.1  billion in 2024 ‑25, and $5.1  billion in 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2023-24 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 15, 2023 - . $5.1 Billion in Reductions. We define a spending reduction as the elimination of an augmentation previously approved under current law or policy. The May Revision includes $5.1 billion in reductions, the largest of which is withdrawing a discretionary principal payment on state’s unemployment insurance loan (which otherwise is paid by employers’ payroll taxes).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4769

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - Governor Also Allocates $5.1   Billion Within K ‑14 Education Surplus for SAL ‑Excluded Spending. In addition to the $35  billion in SAL exclusions that use the overall General Fund surplus, the Governor proposes using $5.1  billion from the surplus within the school and community college budget for SAL ‑excluded purposes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4598

Fiscal Outlook: Medi-Cal

Nov 14, 2018 - Economic Growth Scenario In the economic growth scenario, we estimate that General Fund spending in Medi-Cal would grow at an average rate of 5.1  percent from 2018-19 through 2022-23, eventually reaching $27.5  billion in 2022-23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3898

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - This is a decrease of about $5.1  billion (36  percent) compared to 2015 –16 estimated expenditures. Most of the reduction in spending is related to estimated bond expenditures, such as expenditures from the 2014 water bond (Proposition  1).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/8

An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History

Apr 11, 2019 - Assessing the Net Fiscal Impact In total, the Governor ’s budget proposal would increase General Fund program spending by $7.8  billion, of which $5.1  billion would be for one-time purposes and $2.7  billion for new ongoing commitments (growing to $3.5  billion by 2022-23).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4003

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - This increase is due to College Access Tax Credit Fund revenues growing from $1.8  million in 2015 –16 to $5.1  million in 2016 –17 . Additionally, the budget increases the amount of federal TANF supporting Cal Grants by $405  million and decreases General Fund by the same amount.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/5