California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2012-13 Budget: Economic and Revenue Update [Publication Details]

Feb 27, 2012 - Like the economic data, reports concerning state revenues have been mixed recently too, with weakness in income tax payments accompanied by speculation concerning a future bonanza of tax revenues due to the possible offering of stock by Facebook, Inc.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/2578

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - The added complexity from the alternative revenue estimates making this possible is a worthwhile price to pay. Reaffirming the LAO ’s Independent Mandate The LAO was established in 1941 because the Legislature sought an independent source of information and analysis —one directly accountable to it and serving as a fiscal watchdog on its behalf.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Because this form of compensation is tied to the company ’s stock price, it rises when stock prices rise. Other forms of pay, such as bonuses to workers in the financial sector, also tend to rise when financial markets are doing well.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

COVID-19 and California’s Evolving Fiscal Outlook

Mar 18, 2020 - This estimate assumed that the average price level for the S &P  500 stock index would remain relatively flat from late 2019 through the first half of 2020, with gradual price appreciation thereafter.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4203

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - According to the administration, this growth is largely due to higher ‑than ‑anticipated per ‑enrollee costs, which reflects a range of factors like greater utilization of services, increased prices for medical care, and expanded use of high ‑cost specialty drugs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2019-20 May Revision: Opportunity Zones

May 11, 2019 - This added complexity could create increased administrative burdens for builders, lenders, and government agencies tasked with funding affordable housing. Added complexity also could open the possibility of unintended consequences or misuse of funds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4038

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - These factors weigh on the value of riskier assets, like home and stock prices. Historically, the reduction in spending by consumers and businesses resulting from higher interest rates is effective at easing the upward pressure on wages and prices.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

Cap-and-Trade Extension: Issues for Legislative Oversight

Dec 12, 2017 - Price Ceiling. A predetermined allowance price level that is intended to moderate or prevent price spikes above that price level. There are two types of price ceilings: Soft Price Ceiling. A predetermined allowance price level intended to moderate, but not necessarily prevent, price spikes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3719