California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Under the first statute, the trigger would occur if the Director of Finance projects the SFEU to exceed about 4  p ercent of General Fund revenues (currently, about $5. 4  b illion) in the prior and current year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - To address the estimated $18  billion budget problem at Governor ’s budget, the administration proposed nearly $14  billion in spending ‑related solutions. Of these spending reductions, the Governor proposes making nearly one ‑ third —or nearly $4   billion —subject to trigger restoration language.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 5, 2020 - (General Fund spending increases by a much more modest 4  p ercent.) Caseload in the program is projected to grow by 9  p ercent between 2019 ‑20 and 2020 ‑ 21 —from 13  m illion to 14. 2  m illion —largely due to the projected impact of COVID ‑19.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4263

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - As a result of the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession in 2001, state revenues declined precipitously. The very next year, looking to budget year 2002 ‑03, our Fiscal Outlook found the state ’s surplus had disappeared, and instead, the budget faced a deficit of $12. 4  b illion for the upcoming year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - We Estimate Governor Addressed a $14   Billion Budget Problem. Overall, our assessment of the state ’s budget condition for 2025 ‑26 is similar to that of the administration. While we estimate the administration addressed a $14  billion budget problem, the Governor cited a figure of $12  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044