California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - High –Speed Rail Authority (HSRA) The budget plan includes total expenditures of $1.7  billion for HSRA, roughly $1  billion above the level of expenditures in 2015 –16 . The increase primarily reflects the shifting of some HSRA workload and expenditures initially assumed to occur in 2015 –16 .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/9

Proposed Reserves in the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2016 - Figure 2 Governor Reduces Reserves to $8.5 Billion (In Billions) Reserves Assumed in 2015-16 Budget $4.6
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3463

The 2015-16 Budget: The Governor's Proposition 2 Proposal [Publication Details]

Mar 25, 2015 - The 2015-16 Budget: The Governor's Proposition 2 Proposal [Publication Details] The 2015-16 Budget: The Governor's Proposition 2 Proposal Format: HTML Description: Proposition 2—approved by the voters in November 2014—places formulas into the State Constitution that determine the minimum amount of debt payments and budget reserve deposits to be made in a fiscal year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3226

Cal Facts: 2016

Dec 5, 2016 - Cal Facts: 2016 California 's Public Education System Is Extensive 2015-16 State Is Primary Source of Revenue for K-12 Education 2015-16 Slightly more than 60  percent of school funding comes from the state.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3511/2

Fiscal Outlook Supplement on Proposition 2: Overview

Dec 2, 2015 - Estimated $5.9 Billion Proposition 2 Requirement in 2015-16. Our current estimate of the 2015-16 Proposition 2 requirement includes debt payments and an initial deposit made in the June 2015 budget plan, and a true up deposit that will be made in the 2016-17 budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3313

The 2015-16 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 19, 2014 - Specifically, absent new budget commitments, we estimate the state would end 2015-16 with $4.2 billion in total reserves, $2 billion of which would result from Proposition 2's new reserve rules. A $4 billion reserve would mark significant progress for the state, but maintaining such a reserve in 2015-16 would mean little or no new spending commitments outside of Proposition 98, the funding formula for schools and community colleges.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3152

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - As shown in the figure, the budget at that time assumed total state spending of $167.1  billion (not including federal and bond funds), an increase of 3.2  percent over revised totals for 2015 –16 . General Fund spending in the budget package is $122.5   billion —an increase of $6.9  billion, or 6  percent, over the revised 2015 –16 level.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487