2017 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 11, 2017 - 2017 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook [EconTax Blog] 2017 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook May 11, 2017 Justin Garosi This is one of the LAO 's responses to the 2017-18 May Revision. Other LAO responses are here .
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/239

2017 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 12, 2017 - 2017 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog] Seth Kerstein This is one of the LAO 's responses to the 2017-18 May Revision. Other LAO responses are here . This post presents our May 2017 General Fund revenue outlook for 2015-16 through 2020-21.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/240

Fiscal Outlook: Examining Property Tax Growth Rates [EconTax Blog]

Nov 16, 2016 - We examine reasons behind lower-than-expected growth in assessed property values.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/215

Fiscal Outlook: Property Taxes Exceed Budget Expectations [EconTax Blog]

Nov 15, 2017 - Our November 2017 Fiscal Outlook projects that school property taxes will be notably higher than assumed in the 2017-18 Budget Act . We estimate that across the three-year budget window, property taxes will be up about $1.6 billion, including around $400 million in 2016-17, $500 million in 2017-18, and $650 million in 2018-19.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/258

Fiscal Outlook: Key Economic Assumptions [EconTax Blog]

Nov 15, 2017 - We show the key economic assumptions underlying our new Fiscal Outlook for California.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/259

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - In January 2017, CCI was ended, effectively eliminating the 2012 MOE. In response to this elimination, a new county IHSS MOE was  established in July 2017 —referred  to as the 2017 IHSS MOE. Under the new 2017 IHSS MOE, the counties ’ share of IHSS costs were reset to roughly reflect the counties ’ share of estimated
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

December 2016 State Tax Collections [EconTax Blog]

Jan 5, 2017 - Some such changes in taxpayers’ behavior could delay tax payments that would otherwise have been expected in December 2016 and January 2017 to April 2017 and thereafter. In addition, certain corporate tax (“repatriation”) changes under consideration could result in a future one-time state revenue increase potentially totaling in the low hundreds of millions of dollars.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/228