Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Budget Stabilization Account Proposition   58 Governed BSA From 2004 t o 2014. Until 2014, the BSA was governed by Proposition  58. Passed by voters in 2004, Proposition   58 r equired the state to make an annual transfer into the BSA.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Whereas for the first two decades of this century expenditures averaged 5.9 percent of total personal income, they climbed to a four-decade high of 8 percent in 2022-23. Neither recent revenue trends nor the elevated spending level they supported were expected to represent a new normal, however.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

Nov 14, 2018 - Sometime After 2022 ‑23 assuming neither the optional deposit nor the deposit made under the rules of Proposition  58 count. The Legislature ’s policy appears to be that both the optional deposit and Proposition  58 deposit should count toward the 10  percent threshold.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3900

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - We Estimate the Administration Solved a Larger Budget Problem —$58   Billion. While the Governor cited a budget problem of $38  billion, we estimate the administration solved a budget problem of $58  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - Appendix 4, Figure 8 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Transportation General Fund (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - Specifically, our forecast is about $24 billion below the Governor’s budget across 2022‑23 to 2024‑25. All else equal, this means the budget problem is likely to be higher at the time of the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Operating Surpluses of $3 Billion to $8  Billion. Figure 6 displays our estimates of the budget ’s condition over the outlook period. As the figure shows, although we estimate the budget has an available surplus of $31 billion to allocate in 2022 ‑23, the amount available on an ongoing basis —the operating surplus —is lower.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Figure  2, at the end of this post, lists the major economic variables under our new moderate growth scenario through 2022. As we discussed in November, accurately predicting the future path of the economy is not possible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829