California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - Appendix 4, Figure 3 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Health and Human Services General Fund (In millions) Service provider rate reform acceleration $34 Workforce stability initiative and administrative costs 1 Continue the Coordinated Family Support pilot program 11 Modernizing the Older Californians
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2017-18 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 18, 2017 - This is an increase of $87  million, or about 4   percent —mainly due to increases in funding for capital outlay projects —compared to the revised level of spending in 2016 ‑17. Nearly all of this funding is from the Motor Vehicle Account (MVA), which derives the majority of its revenue from vehicle registration fees and driver license fees.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3694/10

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - The increase consists of (1)  $ 137  m illion for 785 state staff and overtime equivalent positions, (2)  $ 22  m illion for 87  e xternal consultant equivalent positions, (3)  $3. 3  m illion for project permits, (4)  $ 2  m illion (one time) for construction arbitration costs, (5)  $1. 2  m illion (one time) for a Caltrans ’ facility needs study to be conducted by the Department of General Services, and (6)  $ 1  m illion for training.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/10

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - In 1986 ‑87, the state had excess revenues of $1. 1  b illion. Proposition   4 r equired the excess to be rebated to  taxpayers. Proposition   98  (198 8) a nd Proposition   111  Made Changes to the SAL.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028