The 2020-21 Budget: Debt Service on Infrastructure Bonds

Nov 20, 2019 - DSR Expected to Fall Below 5  Percent. We estimate that the DSR will fall below 4  percent over the next several years. This is because we project that General Fund revenues will increase somewhat faster than debt service costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4118

Debt Service on Infrastructure Bonds

Nov 15, 2017 - DSR Has Fluctuated Historically. As shown in Figure  1, the state ’s DSR has varied considerably in past decades between about 3  percent and 6  percent. In the late 2000s, the DSR grew to about 6  percent as large bond measures were approved and state revenues dropped due to a recession.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3713

2002 Budget Analysis: Capital Outlay, Overview

There is no agreed-upon single DSR that "fits " all states, and the appropriate DSR for an individual state can vary depending on such factors as its need and preference for new infrastructure. As a general rule, however, a DSR in the range of 6  percent or less has been recognized as a reasonable level for states.
https://lao.ca.gov/analysis_2002/cap_outlay/co_01_ov_anl02.htm

The 2014-15 Budget: A Review of the 2014 California Five-Year Infrastructure Plan

The state ’s DSR has changed over time, as shown in Figure 4. We believe that there is no one right level of DSR. The DSR simply provides an indication of the relative priority of debt service and infrastructure compared to other spending from the General Fund, with a higher DSR indicating an increased prioritization of spending on infrastructure financing relative to other programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2014/budget/infrastructure/infrastructure-plan-021014.aspx

LAO 2005 Budget Analysis: Capital Outlay Overview

The DSR rebounded beginning in 2003-04, and is expected to reach  4.7  percent in the budget year. We project that the DSR will rise further to around 5.5  percent by 2009-10, as the over $30  billion in currently authorized bonds are sold off.
https://lao.ca.gov/analysis_2005/cap_outlay/co_01_ov_anl05.htm

^[PDF] Ballot Analysis

As shown in Figure 1, the DSR is now around 4 percent. If voters do not approve the proposed bond on this ballot, we project that the state’s DSR on already approved bonds will grow over the next couple of years—peaking at about 4.7 percent in 2021-22—and then begin decreasing.
https://lao.ca.gov/ballot/2020/bond-debt-110320.pdf

LAO 2006 Budget Analysis: Capitol Outlay Overview

Debt-Service Ratio Trending Upward The level of General Fund debt-service payments stated as a percent of state revenues is commonly referred to as the state’s debt-service ratio (DSR). Although there is no correct answer about what a state’s DSR should be, many policymakers and members of the investment community look at the DSR as one helpful indicator of the state’s debt burden.
https://lao.ca.gov/analysis_2006/cap_outlay/co_01_ov_anl06.html

LAO 2004 Budget Analysis: Capital Outlay Overview

Assuming approval of the education bonds on the March  2004 ballot, we estimate that the DSR would increase to about 5.3  percent in 2006-07 as authorized bonds are sold off, and then start to decline.
https://lao.ca.gov/analysis_2004/cap_outlay/co_01_ov_anl04.htm

A Ten-Year Perspective: California Infrastructure Spending

Because of these factors, the state is no longer able to address traffic congestion through expansion projects alone. Caltrans has begun to use other approaches to relieving traffic congestion, such as various operational improvements.
https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2011/stadm/infrastructure/infrastructure_082511.aspx

^[PDF] A Ten-Year Perspective: California Infrastructure Spending

Because of these factors, the state is no longer able to address traffic congestion through expansion projects alone. Caltrans has begun to use other approaches to relieving traffic congestion, such as various operational improvements.
https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2011/stadm/infrastructure/infrastructure_082511.pdf