California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - This, in turn, could prevent the Legislature from grappling with the important risks and trade-offs inherent in their budgeting decisions. Our independent revenue estimates facilitate consideration of these trade-offs in several ways.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2012-13 Budget: Economic and Revenue Update [Publication Details]

Feb 27, 2012 - Like the economic data, reports concerning state revenues have been mixed recently too, with weakness in income tax payments accompanied by speculation concerning a future bonanza of tax revenues due to the possible offering of stock by Facebook, Inc.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/2578

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - History suggests that the stock market is prone to overreact to major technological advances, even if the technology itself turns out to be revolutionary. Our Revenue Outlook Builds in Some Insurance Against a Stock Market Downturn.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - We begin with our guidance regarding reserves specifically and then turn to the state ’s other options. Why We Advise Holding Off on Using Reserves for Now As we discussed in the previous section, we expect the revenue shortfall to be larger in May by around $10  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - This, in turn, allows for higher investment returns than otherwise would be the case. These higher investment returns reduce future required contributions from employers to the unfunded liability than would otherwise be the case.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the State Appropriations Limit Proposal

Feb 4, 2022 - We discuss each of these options in turn below. Address SAL Requirements Preemptively. A preemptive approach involves different options, primarily using surplus funds, but other funds (such as Proposition  98 spending) also can be used.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4515

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - In addition, it used more tax funds to offset General Fund spending on Medi ‑Cal, in turn reducing planned spending on provider rate increases. These solutions yielded General Fund savings of $11  billion through 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - In the fourth section, we focus on overall district fiscal health and summarize the key trade ‑offs districts face moving forward. District Funding Per ‑Student Funding Has Grown Significantly for School Districts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3897