The 2021-22 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 18, 2020 - Revenues would need to beat our expectations by $ 5  b illion in 2021 ‑22 and $ 35  b illion in 2024 ‑25 for the budget to break even. The figure below shows where the breakeven point falls in our likely range of revenue outcomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4297

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - On the other hand, if a market downturn does not occur, revenues very likely will beat our forecast. Should this occur, we advise the Legislature to treat these extra revenues as temporary for the time  being. $18 Billion Budget Problem in 2026‑27 2025 ‑26 Budget Act Anticipated Deficits Through the Multiyear.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - With a boost from the booming stock market, our forecast puts tax collections on track to beat expectations by $7  billion over the budget window (that is, from 2023 ‑24 through 2025 ‑26). This is entirely due to improving income tax collections, which would, under our forecast, end the current year 20  percent higher than two years ago.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - Using our analysis of historical patterns, there is, in fact, a good chance that actual capital gains revenues could beat this projection. That said, there also is a real possibility of a stock market correction which would result in capital gains revenue well below projections.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418