The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - This includes proposals to: (1)  remove the state ’s share of costs associated with growth in IHSS hours per case, which we estimate could save $650  million by 2029 ‑30 (if hours continue to grow at their current rates); (2)  make an ongoing reduction to the Middle Class Scholarship program, which generates $541  million in savings beginning in 2027 ‑28; and (3)  make $12  million in previously provided ongoing federal ‑related litigation funding limited term.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - In many cases, this type of research does not exist. As a result, rarely is information available to determine whether a state program was the cause of a particular change or outcome. In some cases, however, basic data tracking of high-level outcomes and/or metrics of program delivery are available.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - In some cases, such as K-14 education and Department of Developmental Services, slower growth is primarily due to changes in our underlying assumptions. In others —most notably Medi-Cal —reduced growth mainly reflects the choices in the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - In addition to Medi ‑Cal, the other main driver of increased costs is higher ‑than ‑expected costs in the In ‑Home Supportive Services (IHSS) program, related to both higher caseload and hours per case.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - This, in turn, allows for higher investment returns than otherwise would be the case. These higher investment returns reduce future required contributions from employers to the unfunded liability than would otherwise be the case.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - The strongest argument against holding reserves of this size is one of opportunity costs —that is, a share of those funds would be sitting idle for years, and in some cases decades, missing an opportunity for the Legislature to address critical needs of the state.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - Some have asked why this is the case and whether aligning LAO and DOF estimates would be helpful to the Legislature. Although aligning revenue estimates might reduce the potential for confusion, doing so would risk creating bigger problems.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2024-25 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Dec 7, 2023 - In the case of the BSA, requirements above the maximum threshold must be spent on infrastructure instead. In the case of the Proposition 98 Reserve, reserve withdrawals are sometimes required, especially in tighter fiscal times.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4819

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - (In some cases, however, further disbursements could occur between now an d May, such smaller amounts would be available for reduction at that time.) Figure 1 Summary of Possible Remaining One ‑Time and Temporary Spending (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

Nov 16, 2022 - In some limited cases, higher inflation can result in reduced access to or longer wait times for state services. In the case of both DDS and, potentially, Medi‑Cal fee for service, if elevated inflation persists, rates would erode in real terms.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4647