The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - As we discussed in November, accurately predicting the future path of the economy is not possible. The consensus scenario we use is only one possible path for the U.S. and California economies. Key Issues for the Future Trajectory of the State ’s Economy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Despite our view that there is a strong possibility of a market downturn, however, our revenue forecast does not assume one will occur. Rather, we ’ve incorporated the elevated risk of a downturn into our estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - It remains to be seen whether this will occur, but there are some conceivable paths toward broader improvements. One path is falling interest rates and expansion of money available for lending and investment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2019-20 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2019 - Knowing the future path of the economy with certainty is not possible. While multiple signs point to a slowing in the rate of economic growth as assumed in our outlook, our scenario is only one possible path for the California economy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4036

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

2009-10 Budget Analysis Series: Overview of the Governor’s Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 8, 2009 - There are no easy paths to solving the crisis. But it is urgent that the Legislature and Governor act immediately to address a budgetary and cash situation that has the state on the edge of fiscal disaster Reports by Policy Area
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/1906

The 2012-13 Budget: Economic and Revenue Update [Publication Details]

Feb 27, 2012 - The economy now is clearly improving in many important ways, including employment growth, but significant impediments block the state’s path to a more robust economic recovery. Like the economic data, reports concerning state revenues have been mixed recently too, with weakness in income tax payments accompanied by speculation concerning a future bonanza of tax revenues due to the possible offering of stock by Facebook, Inc.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/2578

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - This decrease is primarily due additional one ‑time fire ‑fighting costs provided in 2017 ‑18, particularly for the large fires that occurred in Sonoma and Napa Counties in October 2017 and in Ventura County in December 2017.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/9

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This year, for example, our outlook reflects our best estimates of the effects of H.R. 1: One Big Beautiful Bill Act on the state budget but does not make assumptions about future federal policy changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091