The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2019-20 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2019 - For example, stock markets unexpectedly dropped this week, perhaps in response to the escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Figure 1 LAO May 2019 Economic Growth Scenario Annual Percent Change Unless Indicated 2018
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4036

^[PDF] Alternative Energy Manufacturing Sales and Use Tax Exclusion (SB 71) Program

In providing tax incentives for alternative energy manufacturers, the Legislature sought to provide assistance to a sector that faces signifi cant fi nancial challenges—due, among other things, to the dominance of carbon-based energy in our economy and strong competition from elsewhere, such as China.
https://lao.ca.gov/handouts/Econ/2011/Alternative_energy_Manufacturing_10_19_11.pdf

LAO 2007 Budget Analysis: Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics

The third-quarter growth reflected an over-30 percent increase in shipments to China, and more moderate, but still healthy, growth in shipments to other California trading partners. Is Real Estate Stabilizing?
https://lao.ca.gov/analysis_2007/2007_pandi/pi_02_anl07.aspx

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

May Revision 2016: Economic Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 15, 2016 - As we discussed in November, growth in China continues to decelerate— gradually, so far . Another uncertainty that remains is about how the Federal Reserve’s slow increases in its interest rates will affect the U.S . and world economies .
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/185

Addressing California’s Convenience Zone Recycling Center Closures

May 16, 2016 - First, California exports a significant amount of its recycled scrap material, primarily to China for manufacturing and other uses. Over the past few years, the Chinese economy has weakened, causing the demand for exported scrap to decline.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3466

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033