California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - K ‑12 Attendance Projected to Drop in 2021 ‑22, Rise Over the Following Four Years. The state did not collect school attendance data in 2020 ‑21 due to the pandemic and the temporary switch to remote learning.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of Proposition 98 Proposals [Publication Details]

Jan 27, 2022 - This analysis describes the overall structure of the Governor's plan for school and community college funding, including the major spending proposals and underlying estimates of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4502

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan—Debt Liabilities

Oct 17, 2019 - On an ongoing basis, the state ’s budget documents still reflected 12 months of payroll, but rather than reflecting payroll for June of the last month of the fiscal year, they reflect June of the previous fiscal year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4106

The 2012-13 Budget: Overview of the May Revision [Publication Details]

May 18, 2012 - While we find that the administration's economic and revenue forecasts are reasonable, we are concerned that the amount of property tax revenues from former redevelopment agencies (RDAs) may be substantially less than the May Revision assumes in 2011-12 and 2012-13.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/2635

The 2012-13 Budget: Overview of the May Revision - The 2012-13 Budget: Overview of the May Revision [Video]

While we find that the administration 's economic and revenue forecasts are reasonable, we are concerned that the amount of property tax revenues from former redevelopment agencies (RDAs) may be substantially less than the May Revision assumes in 2011-12 and 2012-13.
https://lao.ca.gov/Videos/Player?playlistId=75

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Constitutionally required spending is higher under the administration ’s estimates by about $13  billion across the budget window. This  increases the administration ’s estimate of the deficit relative to our forecast, partially offsetting some of the revenue improvement.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

California’s Fiscal Outlook: The 2011-12 Budget [Publication Details]

Nov 10, 2010 - In 2011‑12, such an approach might involve $10 billion of permanent revenue and expenditure actions and $15 billion of temporary budget solutions. In 2012‑13, 2013‑14, and 2014‑15, another few billion of permanent actions each year could be initiated, along with other temporary budget solutions, and so on until the structural deficit was eliminated.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/2365