Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - (In fact, Figure  7 likely overstates California ’s reserve balances compared to other states because the data appears to include the SFEU in the state ’s rainy day fund balances, although it is not a true rainy day fund.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

Tempered Expectations

Dec 9, 2019 - First, the recession in our hypothetical “stress test ” is only average in severity and duration compared with the dozen recessions that have occurred since World War II. A more severe or longer lasting recession would inflict more fiscal strain on the state than what we assumed.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4122

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This year, for example, our outlook reflects our best estimates of the effects of H.R. 1: One Big Beautiful Bill Act on the state budget but does not make assumptions about future federal policy changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy [Publication Details]

Apr 10, 2025 - Reserves allow the state to ensure stable funding for its services over time, even when revenue fluctuates unpredictably. Over the last few years, the state has indeed experienced significant fluctuations—large surpluses followed by significant deficits. This volatility has prompted interest in changes to the state’s reserve policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5028

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - That is because reaching the rainy day fund ’s maximum level means that funds which would have been deposited into reserves must instead be spent on infrastructure. This lowers the amount of resources available for building more reserves in the future by roughly $ 1  b illion per year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - For 2019 ‑20, Test   1 i s the operative test under our outlook. If revenue were to be lower than our estimate by any amount, Test  1 would remain operative and the guarantee would drop about 40 c ents for each dollar of lower revenue.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3897

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - Chapter  723 of 2014 (AB  1719, Weber) requires CDE to provide the Legislature with a statewide evaluation of kindergarten programs, including part –day and full –day programs, by July 1, 2017. The 2016 –17 budget includes $150,000 in one –time funds for CDE to expand the scope of this evaluation.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/3

The 2017-18 Budget: Alternatives to the Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Feb 23, 2017 - The 2017-18 Budget: Alternatives to the Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals Alternatives to the Governor's Proposition 2 Proposals Summary Proposition  2 (2014) requires the state to make: (1)  minimum annual payments toward certain eligible debts and (2)  deposits into the state ’s rainy day fund.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3574

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - In this publication we: provide an overview of the 2025 ‑26 budget package, give a brief description of how the budget process unfolded, and then highlight the major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079