The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Whereas California’s labor market has stagnated over the last two years, the S&P 500 stock index has appreciated roughly 50 percent over the same period. And most of this increase has come from skyrocketing share prices among a handful of firms associated with innovations in Artificial Intelligence (AI).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - The state makes an initial estimate of this requirement when it enacts the budget, then revises this estimate over the following two years to reflect updated data. The estimate of the requirement for 2024 ‑25 is up nearly $4.7  billion (4  percent) from the June 2024 level, but the budget appropriates just over $2.7  billion in additional funding for that year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy [Publication Details]

Apr 10, 2025 - Rethinking California's Reserve Policy [Publication Details] HTML Description: Reserves allow the state to ensure stable funding for its services over time, even when revenue fluctuates unpredictably.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5028

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Reserves allow the state to ensure stable funding for its services over time, even when revenue fluctuates unpredictably. Over the last few years, the state has indeed experienced those significant fluctuations—large surpluses followed by significant deficits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - While our revenue forecast is designed to balance the risk of over- and underestimation, history shows that actual revenues can vary from our median projection by billions or even tens of billions of dollars over a multiyear period.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Although the Legislature solved sizeable deficits over the past few years, totaling over $80  billion, those solutions largely only impacted one-time and temporary programs supported by the one-time, post-pandemic revenue surge.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - A key driver of California ’s economic slump over the last two years has been the Federal Reserve ’s efforts to tamp down inflation by raising interest rates and shrinking how much money is available for lending and investment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - The increase is primarily driven by higher costs in the Medi ‑Cal program, which are projected to exceed January estimates by $10  billion over the three ‑year budget window: roughly $2  billion in 2024 ‑25 and $8  billion in 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044