California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Revenues increased by nearly 30 percent in 2020-21 and another 20 percent in 2021-22. In the course of allocating the historically large surpluses generated by the revenue surge, General Fund spending increased commensurately.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - CalSTRS Experienced 27.2 Percent Investment Returns in 2020 ‑21. CalSTRS ’ next actuarial valuation —reflecting 2020 ‑21 investment returns, payroll growth, and other factors impacting CalSTRS ’ unfunded liabilities and required contribution rates —will not be available until the spring of 2022, and CalSTRS will set required contribution rates for 2022 ‑23 at that time.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Figure  2, at the end of this post, lists the major economic variables under our new moderate growth scenario through 2022. As we discussed in November, accurately predicting the future path of the economy is not possible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan—Debt Liabilities

Oct 17, 2019 - Chapter  33 of 2019 (SB  90, Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review) appropriates a General Fund supplemental payment to CalPERS in 2018 ‑19 ($2.5  billion), 2020 ‑21 ($265  million), 2021 ‑22 ($200  million), and 2022 ‑23 ($35  million).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4106

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 5, 2020 - The budget assumes that these changes will create $6. 4  m illion in savings in 2020 ‑21. Savings will likely increase to hundreds of millions of dollars within a few years. Includes Plan to Close Two Prisons by 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4263

The 2022-23 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Press Availability - The 2022-23 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Press Availability [Video]

The 2022-23 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Press Availability - The 2022-23 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Press Availability [Video] Search LAO Videos The 2022-23 Budget: California 's Fiscal Outlook Press Availability November 17, 2021 Legislative Analyst Gabriel Petek hosts a video call with members of the press after the release of the LAO 's report The 2022-23 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook .
https://lao.ca.gov/Videos/Player?playlistId=116