California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The state solved a $27  billion deficit in 2023 ‑24, a $55  billion deficit in 2024 ‑25, and a $15  billion deficit in 2025 ‑26 (in addition to roughly $28  billion in proactive budget ‑balancing actions taken the year before).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Under Proposition  2, the state must put money into the BSA until its total reaches a maximum amount of 10  p ercent of General Fund tax revenue. Currently, this is about $13. 5  b illion. Once the BSA reaches this maximum, funds that would bring the BSA above 10  p ercent of General Fund taxes must be spent on infrastructure.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Although the state had surpluses that totaled over $100 billion across 2021‑22 and 2022‑23, Proposition 2 required only a about $10 billion to be saved over a similar period. Further, since 2023‑24, the Legislature has addressed $82 billion in budget problems (with more in deficits likely to emerge in the coming years), but at its largest, the BSA balance reached only $23 billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - In this section, we first present our estimates of the budget problem the Legislature addressed in the 2025 ‑26 budget package, focusing on the three ‑year budget window under consideration: 2023 ‑24 through 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 5, 2020 - The budget package includes legislation requiring CDCR to inform the Legislature of the specific prisons to be closed by January 10, 2021 and January 10, 2022. The administration estimates the closures will result in $ 400  m illion in ongoing savings annually within a few years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4263