California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - The Governor proposes to pay down $8.4  billion of this amount, with districts receiving the associated cash in 2021 ‑22. Slightly more than $4  billion would remain deferred from 2021 ‑22 to 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan—Debt Liabilities

Oct 17, 2019 - Chapter  33 of 2019 (SB  90, Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review) appropriates a General Fund supplemental payment to CalPERS in 2018 ‑19 ($2.5  billion), 2020 ‑21 ($265  million), 2021 ‑22 ($200  million), and 2022 ‑23 ($35  million).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4106

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - The state used proceeds from the sale of long ‑term electricity bonds to finance $11. 2  b illion in these costs. (Electricity ratepayers, rather than General Fund taxpayers, repaid these bonds financed by a surcharge on electricity bills.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 5, 2020 - Includes Plan to Close Two Prisons by 2022 ‑23. The administration has indicated it plans to close one prison in 2021 ‑22 and another in 2022 ‑ 23 i n order to accommodate the ongoing decline in the inmate population, primarily resulting from Proposition  57 (2016).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4263

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - As such, consistent with General Fund tax revenue increases, our estimate of required General Fund spending on schools and community colleges for 2020 ‑21 and 2021 ‑22 increases by almost $11  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Figure  2, at the end of this post, lists the major economic variables under our new moderate growth scenario through 2022. As we discussed in November, accurately predicting the future path of the economy is not possible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - As a result, in the last two years, the state saw historic budget surpluses —including $47  billion in 2021 ‑22 and $55  billion in 2022 ‑23. Although the state faces a budget problem this year, anticipated revenue shortfalls this year do not yet reflect a recession.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687