How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It.   As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It.   As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Gaming. [Ballot]

Dec 18, 2023 - Banking games generally involve players betting against the “house, ” who is a participant in the game with an interest in the outcome, and percentage games generally involve the house receiving a percentage of the money involved in the game.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2023-030

Sports wagering. [Ballot]

Dec 18, 2023 - At minimum, these regulations must limit wagering to (1) bets made by people age of 21 and older; (2) professional or college sporting events that do not include animals other than horses; and (3) amateu r sporting events that do not include children under the age of 18.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2023-031

Landfills. [Ballot]

Aug 22, 2023 - First, the measure requires landfills that do not comply with the adopted ALBS technology regulations to pay a penalty totaling 10  percent of their tipping fee revenues directly to CalRecycle. Second, it requires NGD Consortium to pay CalRecycle an amount equal to 10  percent of tipping fees received by landfills that are compliant with the adopted ALBS technology regulations.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2023-006

An Update on California Competes [EconTax Blog]

Mar 10, 2023 - One potential interpretation is that the state is making high risk-high reward bets on businesses. While many of these bets do not pan out, the ones that do can be successful enough to yield overall benefits for the state.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/771

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - History suggests that it is difficult for the Fed to weaken demand enough to reduce inflation but not so much as to tip the economy into a recession. This reflects that the Fed ’s tools for implementing changes in monetary policy are blunt and operate with a considerable lag, making attempts at fine-tuning very challenging.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

Improving California’s Unemployment Insurance Program

Aug 8, 2022 - Instead, workers “must also assume responsibility for their role in the UI program by meeting all UI requirements. ”) The department also provides a training video for business titled “How to Protect Your Business from Higher UI Taxes ” that provides tips on how to minimize their UI costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4615