The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

COVID-19 and California’s Evolving Fiscal Outlook

Mar 18, 2020 - In a relatively optimistic scenario, the economy would experience a sharp but comparatively short-lived downturn lasting one or two months. Aided by monetary and (federal) fiscal stimulus, broad-based demand would rebound, contributing to a V ‑shaped recovery, in which activity recovers nearly as quickly as it fell.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4203

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - The Fed ’s continued efforts to lower inflation by raising the Fed funds rate has the effect of cooling the economy, which inherently raises the odds of a recession. As a potential precipitating factor to recession, tighter monetary policy can also reveal financial system vulnerabilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

Apr 26, 2022 - History suggests that this is a daunting task, however, and at least raises the odds of a recession. Financial markets, and the yield curve for U.S. Treasury notes in particular, recently have signaled as much.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4590

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - (Our Fiscal Outlook revenues are our best estimate of the revenue assumption that has even odds of being too high or too low.) We then look at where in this range of potential revenue outcomes the Governor ’s proposed level of spending falls.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - These challenges would not be short-lived either. After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Cal Facts: 2016

Dec 5, 2016 - State Aims to Reduce Reliance on Costly Group Home Foster Care Placements While foster children living in family settings outnumber foster children living in group homes by approximately 9  to  1, total spending (all funds) is split roughly equally between the two groups.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3511/3

Federal Spending in California

Jan 18, 2017 - Postal Service employees) who live in California. The federal government paid an additional $10.3 bi llion in wages and salaries to members of the armed forces (including Coast Guard employees) and the Reserves (including the National Guard).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3531/3

The State Appropriations Limit [Publication Details]

Apr 12, 2000 - The State Appropriations Limit [Publication Details] HTML Description: California's state appropriations limit (SAL)--which grows annually by a population and cost-of-living factor--places an "upper bound" each year on the amount of monies that can be spent from state tax proceeds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/719