California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk [Publication Details]

Jan 23, 2026 - In this installment of Fiscal Perspectives, the Legislative Analyst describes how the LAO’s revenue estimates represent a hedge against downside stock market risk and why—despite current cash trends—caution matters given the state’s large, ongoing structural deficit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5104

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California. California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk January 23, 2026 Tweet Gabriel PetekLegislative Analyst History suggests that fiscal risks can build during times when they are easiest to ignore.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - Reaffirming the LAO ’s Independent Mandate The LAO was established in 1941 because the Legislature sought an independent source of information and analysis —one directly accountable to it and serving as a fiscal watchdog on its behalf.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary The Fiscal Outlook gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state ’s budget condition for the 2025 ‑26 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

Apr 26, 2022 - Yet this is the key takeaway from a recent fiscal analysis of 10,000 possible revenue scenarios conducted by our office. In 95 percent of our simulations, the state encountered a budget problem by 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4590

Taking Stock of California’s Recession Readiness

Feb 12, 2020 - One is that there is a dynamic quality to the state ’s fiscal resilience. A scenario analysis from one year may not be directly comparable to that of another. A major source of this variation is the severity of the recession scenario considered in the analysis.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4156

Amid Good Fiscal Times, Planning for the Future Is Crucial

May 21, 2019 - In a recent scenario analysis , we ran simulations to gauge how likely it is the state would meet its capital gains revenue estimates based on historic stock market performance. For 2019‑20, capital gains-related revenue was either above or below expectations by more than $1 billion in 79 percent of simulations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4051

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act Fiscal Relief Funds. The ARP included $350 billion in flexible funding to state and local governments for fiscal recovery in Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook The 2022‑23 Budget Medi ‑Cal Fiscal Outlook This post describes our fiscal outlook for Medi ‑Cal, the major factors that we expect to drive changes in General Fund spending in Medi ‑Cal, and a number of our key underlying assumptions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4474

An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History

Apr 11, 2019 - An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California. An Extraordinary Moment in California 's Fiscal History April 11, 2019 Tweet Gabriel PetekLegislative Analyst California is at an extraordinary moment in its fiscal history.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4003