The 2020-21 Budget: Staffing to Address New Independent Contractor Test

Feb 11, 2020 - Analysis Predicting AB  5 Workload Difficult at This Early Stage . . . As we noted earlier, at this time we cannot predict how many contractors will be reclassified and hired as employees due to AB  5.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4151

MOU Fiscal Analysis: Bargaining Unit 8 (Firefighters)

Aug 19, 2025 - While difficult to predict , the pay increase provided by the agreement would increase state unplanned overtime costs relative to what they otherwise would have been for Unit 8. …Likely Resulting in Net Costs to State Beginning in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5066

MOU Fiscal Analysis: Bargaining Unit 16 (Physicians, Dentists, and Podiatrists)

Jul 14, 2025 - Furloughs have some clear advantages, including that they are administratively easy to implement; they offer immediate and predictable levels of savings; and they do not require a reduction in workforce, allowing the state to immediately “staff up ” after the budget problem passes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5064

MOU Fiscal Analysis: Bargaining Unit 12 (Craft and Maintenance)

Jun 27, 2025 - Furloughs can make the state a less attractive employer to possible new hires by making the state ’s compensation package less competitive compared with compensation offered by other employers and by demonstrating a lack of predictability in the state ’s terms of employment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5060

MOU Fiscal Analysis: Bargaining Unit 6 (Corrections)

Jun 23, 2025 - Furloughs have some clear advantages including that they are administratively easy to implement; they offer immediate and predictable levels of savings; and they do not require a reduction in workforce, allowing the state to immediately “staff up ” after the budget problem passes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5058

Climate Change Impacts Across California - Crosscutting Issues

Apr 5, 2022 - A recent scientific  study  by United States Geological Survey researchers predicted that under scenarios of three feet to six feet of sea‑level rise, up to two‑thirds of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4575

Revisiting the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Insolvency

Sep 30, 2016 - (We note that this assumption does not constitute a prediction, as periods of stagnation, recession, or even faster economic growth, are possible in future years.) Once federal loans have been fully repaid, the UI trust fund will once again have a positive reserve balance and will be solvent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3503

Revisiting the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Insolvency

Sep 30, 2016 - However, there is no reliable tool to predict the timing or severity of a future recession far in advance. Since reserves are projected to grow while unemployment is declining or flat, the sooner the next downturn takes place, the smaller its effect on reserves has to be to result in insolvency.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3503/2

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor’s CalPERS Borrowing Proposal

May 16, 2017 - The length of the loan would, in part, be determined by the Proposition  2 debt payment requirements, which are not very predictable. In particular, the administration proposes to vary General Fund repayments dependent on other, future Proposition  2 requirements.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3673

Unit 9 (Professional Engineers) MOU Analysis

Aug 25, 2022 - The Legislature’s calendar is highly predictable with legislative deadlines publicly known many months in advance. And, yet, the administration and unions consistently submit labor agreements to the Legislature with just days before a major legislative deadline.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4620