The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Figure 1 Comparing Recent California Economic Scenarios Percent Change Unless Indicated Target federal funds rate (percent) 1.6 S &P 500 (annual average) 2,612 73 61 a An economic growth scenario based on Moody ’s Analytics ’ April 2018 U.S.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2019-20 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2019 - Our May Revision economic scenario is based on the average of a collection of publicly available forecasts from various institutions and professional economists as compiled by Moody ’s Analytics. The figures at the end of this post show our office ’s key economic assumptions and compare them to those from Department of Finance ’s May Revision economic forecast.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4036

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Our revenue outlook is based on a consensus national economic forecast compiled by Moody ’s Analytics. As such, our revenue estimates are premised on two key assumptions: the continuation of the current economic expansion through 2022, and a moderate stock market decline in 2019 followed by a gradual rebound.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3830

The 2019-20 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook

May 12, 2019 - Our revenue outlook is based on a consensus national economic forecast compiled by Moody ’s Analytics. As such, our revenue estimates are premised on the continuation of moderate economic growth through 2023.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4037

With New Deficits Looming, California Will Weigh its Options for Allocating a Large Revenue Windfall

Dec 1, 2020 - Our office stands ready to provide analytical assistance to the Legislature as it considers its options on this front. Consider Proactive Steps to Address Oncoming Operating Deficits Regarding the structural deficit, our twofold recommendation —to avoid new ongoing commitments and make some initial progress in shrinking the projected problem —would be a good start.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4305

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - On an analytical basis, there is nothing inherently correct about this time frame, except that it is long enough to allow us to measure the cumulative effect of several economic cycles. Predicting the exact path revenues will take over the next 50  years is, of course, impossible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

Taking Stock of California’s Recession Readiness

Feb 12, 2020 - Planning for an Operating Surplus Bolsters Resilience Each year, our office constructs a fiscal outlook that estimates state budget performance several years into the future based on the consensus economic forecast reported by Moody ’s Analytics.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4156

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - Under the current consensus forecast prepared by Moody ’s Analytics, the COLA after 2019 ‑ 20 i s projected to be somewhat lower than this historical average —hovering around 1  p ercent per year. (We note that the statutory COLA has been difficult to predict, with the actual COLA rate, as locked down in April each year, exceeding Moody ’s fall consensus projection the past few years.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3897

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - In this scenario, we assume a recession begins in the third quarter of calendar year 2020, based on Moody ’s Analytics “moderate ” recession scenario. (This scenario is not based on a recent historical example, but rather a model of one possible recession scenario that Moody ’s believes could materialize in the coming years.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

The 2020-21 Budget: Structuring the Budget

Feb 10, 2020 - For example, if a recession is expected to last three years, a $ 1  b illion operating surplus would offset revenue losses by $ 3  b illion, lowering reserves needed by a like amount. 2020‑21 Budget Structure This section applies the analytical framework from this report to the budget structure for 2020 ‑21.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4150