Federal Spending in California

Jan 18, 2017 - While our estimate is not comparable with multi-state estimates, our approach does allow us to display spending amounts at a more detailed level and with more precision and detail than others. Figure 1 Comparing LAO Estimate of Federal Spending in California to Other Estimates Total Federal Expenditures in California (In Billions) LAO
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3531/7

The 2019-20 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2019 - For example, stock markets unexpectedly dropped this week, perhaps in response to the escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Figure 1 LAO May 2019 Economic Growth Scenario Annual Percent Change Unless Indicated 2018
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4036

Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - What do the new multiyear estimates tell us? For one, they suggest the Governor ’s emphasis on one-time spending is appropriate. Of the large $38 billion discretionary surplus at the May Revision, we estimate that the Governor initially would allocate just $2 billion for new ongoing purposes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - These analyses allow us to evaluate two key questions that come to mind in light of the current period of high inflation. First, what is the main channel through which high inflation affects the state’s budget condition?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

COVID-19 and California’s Evolving Fiscal Outlook

Mar 18, 2020 - Although we do not know how the market will perform going forward, the recent price drops give us tangible information about one way in which COVID-19 could affect California’s budget. Prior to the COVID-19-related declines, equity markets had outperformed Department of Finance assumptions in December and January.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4203

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - On an analytical basis, there is nothing inherently correct about this time frame, except that it is long enough to allow us to measure the cumulative effect of several economic cycles. Predicting the exact path revenues will take over the next 50  years is, of course, impossible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

Amid Good Fiscal Times, Planning for the Future Is Crucial

May 21, 2019 - Although the multiyear fiscal outlook is useful for illustrating the budget trajectory under baseline conditions, consider how the following assumptions can cause us to overestimate future surpluses.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4051

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - This allows us to assess how likely it is that revenues could be high enough to support the proposed spending. Specifically, we assess how often in the past revenues experienced a positive deviation large enough to meet or exceed the proposed level of spending (adjusted for constitutional, formula ‑driven spending).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - For example, it requires us to project how caseload will change for means ‑tested programs, estimate how much federal funding will come to the state based on current federal policy, and make many other assessments.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646

The 2020-21 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2020 - Based on information the administration provided to us, we estimate the associated savings of withdrawing or modifying these proposals is $2. 1  b illion, including roughly $ 900  m illion in ongoing savings.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4232