Cap-And-Trade Auction Update and GGRF Projections

Dec 6, 2021 - Drop to Price Floor. In this scenario, we assume prices drop to the floor beginning in February 2022 and remain there through 2022 ‑23. These prices would result in GGRF revenues totaling $3.7  billion in 2021 ‑22 and $2.7  billion in 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4480

The 2022-23 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan

Jan 25, 2022 - As shown in Figure 2, the administration’s revenue assumptions in both 2021‑22 and 2022‑23 are slightly below our low revenue scenario, where we assume all allowances sell at the floor price. Although the administration also assumes that all allowances will sell at the floor price, its estimates of the number of allowances offered and the level of the floor price are slightly lower than ours.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4496

Assessing California’s Climate Policies—Cap-and-Trade Reauthorization

May 7, 2025 - (This estimate is based on allowance scenarios CARB has identified as part of its forthcoming rulemaking and assumes that allowance prices remain between the current price floor and ceiling, adjusted by 5  percent annually, consistent with current CARB regulations.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5042

The 2022-23 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Revenue Update

Apr 29, 2022 - In our January analysis, The 2022-23 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan , we identified different cap-and-trade auction revenue scenarios, including a “base” revenue scenario where allowance prices remain relatively stable and a low revenue scenario where allowances prices drop to the floor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4591

The 2024-25 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan

Feb 20, 2024 - Prior to spring 2023, the administration based its estimates on an assumption that all cap ‑and ‑trade allowances would sell at the auction floor price. This methodology resulted in DOF regularly underestimating revenues quite notably, as allowances have sold well above the floor price for the last several years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4847

The 2023-24 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund Revenue Estimates

Mar 2, 2023 - The administration assumes all allowances will sell at the floor price, which is not a typical scenario as allowances have sold above the floor price over the last couple of years. Under our base revenue scenario (which represents stable allowance prices), we estimate total revenues over the two-year period wou ld be $2  billion higher than assumed under the
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4730

California’s Cap-and-Trade Program: Frequently Asked Questions

Oct 24, 2023 - CARB sets a “floor price ” (minimum price) for which an allowance can be sold, but historically allowances frequently have sold above that price due to buyer interest. For example, in the August 2023 auction, CARB set the per-allowance floor price at $22.21 but allowances ultimately sold for $35.22 each.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4811

Cap-and-Trade Extension: Issues for Legislative Oversight

Dec 12, 2017 - However, for the speed bumps, allowances are made available at intermediate prices between the floor and the ceiling. Price Floor. A predetermined allowance price level that is intended to moderate or prevent price drops below that level.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3719

Assessing California's Climate Policies—The 2022 Scoping Plan Update

Jan 4, 2023 - An over ‑supply of allowances eventually will result in a significant drop in their market price —likely to levels near or below the floor price established by CARB. When prices would drop to these levels is unclear, but they likely would approach the floor as market participants (such as covered entities) become more confident that there will be excess allowances available through 2030.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4656

Assessing California’s Climate Policies—Agriculture

Dec 15, 2021 - Figure 6 Overview of Activities Funded Under AMMP Activity Number of Projects Solid separation a Installation of technology that separates manure solids prior to entry into a wet/anaerobic environment (such as a lagoon). 68 Alternative manure treatment and storage Installation of a compost bedded pack barn or slatted floor pit storage manure collection. 30 Flush to scrape
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4483