California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: California State University

Feb 24, 2026 - The total marginal cost (state and student shares combined) of increasing resident undergraduate enrollment by 1  percent in 2026 ‑27 is $58  million. Provide more funding for student financial aid. Specifically, CSU plans to designate $67  million for this purpose.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5142

The 2026-27 Budget: Judicial Branch

Feb 11, 2026 - The judicial branch currently manages around 430 facilities across all 58 counties. Its facility program is responsible for various activities including maintaining these facilities, managing leases, and constructing new courthouses to replace outdated facilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5113

The 2026-27 Budget: County Administration and H.R. 1 Implementation [Publication Details]

Mar 5, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: County Administration and H.R. 1 Implementation [Publication Details] Description: In this brief, we assess the Governor's proposed funding for county administration of Medi-Cal and CalFresh in response to H.R. 1 and provide related recommendations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5149

The 2026-27 Budget: County Administration and H.R. 1 Implementation

Mar 5, 2026 - Backfilling lost federal benefits under H.R.  1 would require billions of dollars in additional budget solutions. …While Counties Face Multiple Cost Pressures. H.R.  1 also puts strain on county finances.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5149

The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - This growth in IHSS hourly wages is in part due to increases to the state minimum wage —from $8  per hour on January 1, 2014 to $16.90 per hour on January  1,  2026. Pursuant to current law, the state minimum wage will continue to increase by inflation annually (or 3.5  percent, whichever is lower).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Mar 2, 2026 - Our estimate of total coverage losses by June 2027 is higher than the administration ’s by about 280,000, largely because we assume most disenrollment among existing enrollees would occur within roughly 12 months of implementation rather than 18 months.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146