How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It.   As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It.   As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - On the other hand, if GO-Biz chose to allocate a large fraction of the current credit pool over a short period, it would sharply increase the fiscal cost of the program over the next several years as credits are claimed.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

The 2026-27 Budget: Framework for Approaching the Natural Resources, Environmental Protection, and Agriculture Budget

Feb 10, 2026 - California Conservation Corps (CCC): Hand Crew Resources. CCC proposes $11.7  million General Fund and 49 positions in 2026 ‑27 (as well as a similar amount ongoing) for its hand crews to operate on a daily, year ‑round schedule consistent with CalFire ’s hand crew requirements.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5116

The 2026-27 Budget: California Student Aid Commission

Feb 17, 2026 - On the one hand, students with higher MCS awards may be more sensitive to the reduction than students with smaller MCS awards. On the other hand, as Figure  6 shows, students with higher awards are likely to be from households with higher incomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5127

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - On the one hand, allocating more funding now would allow more projects to begin in 2026-27, avoiding the construction cost escalation associated with waiting until a future year. On the other hand, allocating less funding now would leave more available for high-priority projects (including life safety projects) that could emerge over the next year or two.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - And most of this increase has come from skyrocketing share prices among a handful of firms associated with innovations in Artificial Intelligence (AI). These firms have invested heavily in building out data centers and on extraordinary pay packages for their key employees.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: Office of Emergency Services Next Generation 911 System

Feb 27, 2026 - On the other hand, the regional approach may have too much redundancy and may have become so complex that it suffers in operability compared to the envisioned statewide system. It is unclear if OES ’s choices are consistent with the Legislature ’s preferences if faced with the same set of options and trade ‑ offs —particularly since OES has not provided information on the trade
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5145

Assessing a Shift to Enrollment-Based School Funding

Jan 6, 2026 - Alternative 3, on the other hand, provides about one ‑third of the funding increase through base funding. This approach would provide some level of flexible base funding to all districts, while being more targeted to high UPP  districts than switching to an enrollment student count methodology.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5100