How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It.   As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It.   As our office warned last November, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. While there is a chance that this time is different and no such downturn is forthcoming, the risk appears strong enough that we have incorporated it into the state 's revenue outlook.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: California Student Aid Commission

Feb 17, 2026 - To do so, the state is using a General Fund cash loan to cover the payments to students. This approach only works if the state is in a strong cash position. If the state ’s cash position weakens, which has happened during previous fiscal downturns, the state could find that internal borrowing is no longer an option.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5127

The 2026-27 Budget: University of California

Feb 26, 2026 - In 2025 ‑26, the state deferred a $130  million General Fund payment from 2025 ‑26 to 2026 ‑27, while allowing UC to take a no ‑interest General Fund cash loan to cover costs in the meantime. UC requested and received this cash loan in fall 2025.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5143

The 2026-27 Budget: Proposed Elimination of State Environmental Positions

Feb 17, 2026 - For example, at the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), positions include game wardens who prov ide important law enforcement and wildlife and resource protection services. Some CDFW positions also administer various permits, a key function to ensure that projects —from habitat restoration to infrastructure and housing development —can be completed with less damage to the environment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5124

The 2026-27 Budget: California State University

Feb 24, 2026 - CSU requested and received this cash loan in fall 2025. The Governor ’s budget proposes to continue this arrangement, deferring $144  million from 2026 ‑27 to 2027 ‑28, along with offering another no ‑interest General Fund cash loan.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5142

The 2026-27 Budget: Supplemental Security Income/State Supplementary Payment (SSI/SSP) Program

Mar 3, 2026 - Background The SSI/SSP program provides cash grants to low-income aged, blind, and disabled individuals. Grant levels for SSI/SSP are determined by both the federal government and the state. Specifically, the federal government pays for the SSI portion of the grant while the state pays the SSP portion of the grant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5148

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk [Publication Details]

Jan 23, 2026 - In this installment of Fiscal Perspectives, the Legislative Analyst describes how the LAO’s revenue estimates represent a hedge against downside stock market risk and why—despite current cash trends—caution matters given the state’s large, ongoing structural deficit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5104

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - In this installment of Fiscal Perspectives, the Legislative Analyst describes how the LAO’s revenue estimates represent a hedge against downside stock market risk and why—despite current cash trends—caution matters given the state’s large, ongoing structural deficit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104