How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: Food Assistance Programs

Feb 18, 2026 - This state share is only imposed on states that have a payment error rate of 6  percent or higher. As shown in Figure  1, the amount of the state share depends on how much the state ’s error rate exceeds 6  percent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5126

The 2026-27 Budget: University of California

Feb 26, 2026 - As Figure  6 shows, UC core fund balances as a share of its annual core fund expenditures have been as low as 1.8  percent in 2008 ‑09 and as high as 23  percent in 2012 ‑13. UC reserves dropped notably at the onset of the Great Recession.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5143

The 2026-27 Budget: Child Welfare

Mar 3, 2026 - Some questions could include: If the Legislature does not make an appropriation to implement the Tiered Rate Structure beginning in 2027-28, the current, interim LOC rate structure for foster care maintenance payments would remain in place.
https://lao.ca.gov/publications/report/5147

The 2026-27 Budget: Bureau for Private Postsecondary Education

Mar 25, 2026 - As Figure  2 shows, the BPPE Fund is projected to become insolvent in 2027-28 regardless of whether the state provides the proposed General Fund appropriation. (This appropriation would have a small impact on BPPE ’s near-term fiscal condition, as it covers loan repayment costs that would otherwise be spread across the next six years.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5169

The 2026-27 Budget: Higher Education Overview

Feb 5, 2026 - Recommend Holding Enrollment Flat at Universities in 2027 ‑28. Given the sizeable projected deficit in 2027 ‑28, we recommend holding enrollment expectations flat for UC and CSU that year. Setting higher enrollment targets for the segments without providing them funding comes with downsides.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5112

The 2026-27 Budget: Child Care and State Preschool

Mar 19, 2026 - On January 6, 2026, the federal administration announced that it would freeze $10  billion in grant funding going to five states due to concerns about improper use of federal funds. The freeze affected Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), CCDF, and the Social Services Block grant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5168

The 2026-27 Budget: California State University

Feb 24, 2026 - We recommend removing the state ’s out ‑year funding commitments to CSU in 2027 ‑28 and 2028 ‑29. Eliminating these out ‑year augmentations would reduce projected state deficits in 2027 ‑28 and 2028 ‑29 without requiring programmatic cuts or tax increases.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5142