California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - These challenges would not be short-lived either. After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges $8.2 a Estimate of the additional costs relative to the 2021 ‑22 budget level. b The 2021 ‑22 budget provided $1 billion in ongoing funds and $750 million in one ‑time funds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 27, 2021 - Transportation: Discretionary Spending Proposals in the 2021 ‑22 Budget Package General Fund (In Millions) Highways, roads, and transit (transportation infrastructure package) b — Port of Oakland truck, rail, and neighborhood safety corridor — Active transportation (transportation infrastructure package) b — State and local adaptation (transportation
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4448/1

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - As we discuss later in this brief, the May Revision maintains a cost ‑of ‑living adjustment (COLA) and other spending increases for schools and community colleges despite the drop in funding. Baseline Spending Higher by $12   Billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

Nov 16, 2022 - Cases in which program spending is adjusted by certain factors, like a cost ‑of ‑living adjustment (COLA). These factors are set and approved in state law. These adjustments require limited annual legislative input, particularly when continuously appropriated.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4647

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - Inflation Risk Is Really a Revenue Risk Although high inflation often is most associated with rising prices and a higher cost of living, from a state budget perspective, the overriding worry is on the revenue side.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - (The State Constitution refers to this measure as the “cost ‑of ‑living ” adjustment.) Measure of Population Growth. The SAL growth factor ’s second major input is change in population. To measure population, the formula uses a weighted average of the change in the school population and the change in the state ’s civilian population.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - Conclusion The pandemic has disrupted the lives and livelihoods of millions of Californians and continues to take the lives of thousands of Californians each month. In the spring of 2020, the Legislature faced an unprecedented challenge to respond to the pandemic and adopt a budget in the face of unprecedented economic uncertainty.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309

The 2021-22 Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 23, 2021 - The 2021-22 Spending Plan: Other Provisions a Funding is one time unless otherwise noted. b $10 million annually for three years for a total of $30 million. c Funding is ongoing. Capital Outlay. The budget includes $44  million General Fund for several OES capital outlay projects.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4452

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - A person saving for retirement does not know how long they will live or exactly what their expenses will be in retirement, but they nonetheless must plan for this eventuality by making the best possible choices in the meantime.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028