California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - This includes proposals to: (1)  remove the state ’s share of costs associated with growth in IHSS hours per case, which we estimate could save $650  million by 2029 ‑30 (if hours continue to grow at their current rates); (2)  make an ongoing reduction to the Middle Class Scholarship program, which generates $541  million in savings beginning in 2027 ‑28; and (3)  make $12  million in previously provided ongoing federal ‑related litigation funding limited term.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2024-25 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 2, 2024 - The budget includes a $27  million loan to the Contingent Fund of the Medical Board of California (Contingent Fund) from the High Polluter Repair or Removal Account, which supports the Bureau of Automotive Repair.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4934

The 2024-25 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 2, 2024 - The budget includes a $27  million loan to the Contingent Fund of the Medical Board of California (Contingent Fund) from the High Polluter Repair or Removal Account, which supports the Bureau of Automotive Repair.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4934/governors-office-of-emergency-services

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - (For the purposes of this analysis, we define the state ’s baseline budget as the ongoing program spending level after removing all one‑time and temporary spending the administration estimates is currently authorized or planned under Governor’s budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2023-24 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Nov 8, 2023 - Furthermore, the legislation removes three species that are either no longer threatened or are presumed extinct from the f ully protected designation —the American peregrine falcon, brown pelican, and thicktail chub.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4814