California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - We Estimate the Administration Solved a Larger Budget Problem —$58   Billion. While the Governor cited a budget problem of $38  billion, we estimate the administration solved a budget problem of $58  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - We apply this method to monthly CPS data from January 2022 through December 2023 to construct the estimates that appear in Figures 3 through 7 in the post Is California’s Minimum Wage High, Low, or Somewhere in Between?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - Over the last decade, two statutes —Chapter  351 of 2013 (AB  10, Alejo) and Chapter  4 of 2016 (SB  3, Leno) —gradually have increased California ’s statewide minimum wage from $8 per hour to $16 per hour.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - Figure  3 shows that most low-wage workers live in households without any children under 18. Roughly 20  percent live with one child, 15  percent with two children, and fewer than 10  percent with three or more children.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/1

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - As shown in Figure  3, our estimates suggest that the share of workers in low-wage jobs declines by more than one-third between the ages of 25 and 32. This decline suggests that a substantial share of workers spend just a handful of years in low-wage jobs before moving on to mid-to-high-wage jobs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/2

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - Over the last decade, California ’s nominal minimum wage has doubled from $8 per hour to $16 per hour. The state ’s minimum wage is now more than double the federal minimum wage, which has been $7.25 per hour since 2009.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/3

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q2) [EconTax Blog]

Aug 18, 2025 - Preliminary Total for 2024-25: $58 Million. For firearm and ammunition excise tax returns filed for 2024-25, the total amount of tax due is $58 million —a bit lower than the budget package revenue assumption.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/836