California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - In addition, the administration estimated the state would continue to face structural deficits between $15  billion and $25  billion through  2028 ‑29. 2026 ‑27 Budget Problem Now Larger Than Anticipated.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Figure 4 State ’s New Borrowing to Balance the Budget (In Billions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - We define a delay as a proposal that reduces expenditures within the budget window (2023 ‑24 through 2025 ‑26) but shifts those costs to a future year in the multiyear period (2026 ‑27 through 2028 ‑29).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Specifically, our November forecasted spending growth is about 6  percent over the multiyear period (2026-27 thought 2028-29) —a growth rate that is high by historical outlook standards and slightly above what we consider to be long-term revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - Taken together, the administration estimates these proposals would reduce revenues by around $150  million in 2025 ‑26, reaching $300  million by  2028 ‑29. Discretionary Reserves Sets Discretionary Reserve Balance to $4.5   Billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - In total, the spending plan maintains a total of $29  billion for these packages across a seven ‑year period (2021 ‑28), which represents 79  percent of the original multiyear planned amounts ($36  billion).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922