California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Specifically, we suggest the Legislature: (1) plan for lower revenues, (2) maintain a similar reserve withdrawal, (3) develop a plan for school and community college funding, (4) maximize reductions in one ‑time spending, and (5) apply a higher bar for any discretionary proposals and contain ongoing service level.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - Figure 1 Summary of Possible Remaining One ‑Time and Temporary Spending (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Appendix 4: Large One-Time and Temporary Augmentations Transportation Appendix 4, Figure 1 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Business and Labor General Fund (In millions) Begin new information
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - In addition, recent budgets have relied on nearly $30  billion in borrowing to address deficits, and the Governor ’s budget proposes almost $6  billion in additional borrowing (see Figure  1). A period of strong revenue growth is not an appropriate time to draw down significant reserves or continue to rely on borrowing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - The budget package includes $2.7 billion in one time funds from various state and federal fund sources to support the following: (1) monthly rate supplement payments to providers based on region and number of enrolled children from January 1, 2024 through June 30, 2025; (2) a one-time provider lump-sum transitional payment; (3) a narrower
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - In January, we estimated that the budget problem under the administration ’s assumptions was $58  billion. The budget problem is now slightly lower —$55  billion. There are four notable factors contributing to this difference.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762