California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Revenues increased by nearly 30 percent in 2020-21 and another 20 percent in 2021-22. In the course of allocating the historically large surpluses generated by the revenue surge, General Fund spending increased commensurately.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2024-25 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Dec 7, 2023 - Estimate of Minimum General Fund Spending Requirement Under Proposition 98 Is Down $21 Billion … Under our outlook, the decline in General Fund revenue reduces the minimum required General Fund spending under Proposition 98 by $21 billion from 2022 ‑23 through 2024 ‑25, which represents a reduction of nearly 38 cents for each dollar of lower revenue.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4819

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - Under the state ’s interpretation of the withdrawal rules in the case of a disaster, the state could withdraw any amount from either the optional or mandatory balance in 2020 ‑21. LAO Comments True Up Requirement for 2020 ‑21 Could Be Higher at May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - CalSTRS Experienced 27.2 Percent Investment Returns in 2020 ‑21. CalSTRS ’ next actuarial valuation —reflecting 2020 ‑21 investment returns, payroll growth, and other factors impacting CalSTRS ’ unfunded liabilities and required contribution rates —will not be available until the spring of 2022, and CalSTRS will set required contribution rates for 2022 ‑23 at that time.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Sep 30, 2022 - The final budget package does not reflect excess revenues across 2020-21 and 2021-22, nor does it include any unaddressed SAL requirements for 2022-23. In particular, as of July 2022, the administration estimates 2020-21 ended with appropriations subject to the limit above the limit by $16  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4631