How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

2022-23 Fiscal Outlook Revenue Estimates [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2021 - For example, withholding collections so far in 2021-22 have been 22 percent above the same months in 2020-21 and 32 percent above the same mo nths in 2019-20. Similarly, September 2021 estimated income tax payments were up more than 50 percent over September 2020.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/712

Assessing California’s Climate Policies—Cap-and-Trade Reauthorization

May 7, 2025 - Assembly Bill  32 gave CARB almost complete discretion over how to design the cap ‑and ‑trade program. Since the program ’s establishment, much of the Legislature ’s role has revolved around how to spend GGRF revenues, including establishing ongoing statutory allocations and selecting discretionary allocations on an annual basis.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5042

Assessing California’s Climate Policies—Cap-and-Trade Reauthorization [Publication Details]

May 7, 2025 - This report is intended to help inform legislative decision-making around reauthorization of the cap-and-trade program. It is submitted pursuant to Chapter 135 of 2017 (AB 398, Garcia), which requires our office to report annually on the economic impacts and benefits of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5042