California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Specifically, we suggest the Legislature: (1) plan for lower revenues, (2) maintain a similar reserve withdrawal, (3) develop a plan for school and community college funding, (4) maximize reductions in one ‑time spending, and (5) apply a higher bar for any discretionary proposals and contain ongoing service level.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - (Due to specific circumstances this year, changes in revenues are unlikely to have a significant effect on the state’s other major formula-driven spending requirements, specifically related to Proposition 2.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - Proposition 2 Proposition   2 Contains Annual Debt Payment Requirement. Proposition  2 created new rules regarding: (1)  deposits into the state ’s rainy ‑day fund and (2)  accelerating payments toward certain eligible debts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Appendix 4: Large One-Time and Temporary Augmentations Transportation Appendix 4, Figure 1 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Business and Labor General Fund (In millions) Begin new information technology overhaul
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - This post provides an overview of the Governor ’s proposals related to Proposition  2. First, we provide some background on how the measure works. In the subsequent three sections, we summarize and comment on (1)  the Governor ’s overall Proposition  2 estimates and requirements, (2)  the reserve proposals, and (3)  the debt payment requirements.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - (The Legislature also can withdraw the entire “discretionary ” balance of the BSA at any time, which are amounts that were deposited into the fund on top of Proposition  2 requirements.) In the May Revision, the Governor proposes withdrawing about $3  billion from the BSA —significantly less than the roughly $12  billion withdrawal proposed in January.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902