California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - As shown in Figure  4, the May Revision adds $5  billion in new borrowing, increasing the total outstanding amount from $12  billion to $17  billion. Importantly, while some of this new borrowing is incorporated into the multiyear outlook, other components are not.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - The first quarter was especially strong, with 17  percent annualized growth in total pay, among the sharpest quarterly growth rates on record. Income tax receipts have followed suit, with withholding collections nearing 10  percent growth so far this year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - The operating deficits under our forecast are slightly larger —ranging from $14  billion to $20   billion —compared to those under the administration ’s forecast —ranging from $14  billion to $17  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - Nonetheless, under the Governor ’s May Revision, general purpose reserves as a share of nonschool spending would reach  17  percent by the end of 2022 ‑23, still below the pre ‑pandemic share of 20  percent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4598