California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - This includes proposals to: (1)  remove the state ’s share of costs associated with growth in IHSS hours per case, which we estimate could save $650  million by 2029 ‑30 (if hours continue to grow at their current rates); (2)  make an ongoing reduction to the Middle Class Scholarship program, which generates $541  million in savings beginning in 2027 ‑28; and (3)  make $12  million in previously provided ongoing federal ‑related litigation funding limited term.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Despite this, income tax collections have been strong in recent months, growing at double‑digit rates. These strong income tax collections are being driven by enthusiasm around AI, which has pushed the stock market to record highs and boosted compensation among the state’s tech workers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Other Medi-Cal solutions aim to constrain costs —for instance, increasing pharmacy rebates —and end some forms of additional rate and service payments. One of the other large areas of solutions is in In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Figure  1 shows the relative size and expected growth rates of major General Fund programs. Larger bubbles reflect higher levels of spending and bubbles farther to the right reflect higher rates of expected growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - First, the state would calculate the average growth rate in revenues over 20 years. Second, using this growth rate, the state would estimate where revenues would be in the current year if they had grown at that rate over the past three years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028