California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - Second, we briefly summarize the key actions taken to address projected out ‑year deficits, and describe the administration ’s June  2025 estimates of the state ’s multiyear budget condition under the enacted spending plan.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Second, we found that spending was much higher than had been anticipated in June, in large part due to the state ’s constitutional requirements eroding revenue gains. Administration ’s Higher Revenue Estimate Significantly Improves Budget Condition.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - In addition, recent budgets have relied on nearly $30  billion in borrowing to address deficits, and the Governor ’s budget proposes almost $6  billion in additional borrowing (see Figure  1). A period of strong revenue growth is not an appropriate time to draw down significant reserves or continue to rely on borrowing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Second, while our revenue estimates hedge against a market downturn, they do not reflect the revenue declines the state would experience in a recession. Third, the state has used most of its budget resiliency tools to address prior deficits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Revenues for prior and current years are up a total of $6  billion, primarily reflecting stronger ‑than ‑expect personal income tax collections which are running $4  billion ahead of prior projections as of April.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Aug 30, 2021 - The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit The 2021-22 California Spending Plan The State Appropriations Limit In the late 1970s, voters passed Proposition  4 (1979), which added Article XIIIB to the State Constitution.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4449

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - The  second section provides our comments. Analysis Budget Problem $6   Billion Larger in 2023 ‑24 Under LAO Estimates. Under our office ’s projections, and assuming the Governor ’s May  Revision policies were adopted, the budget problem for this year is $34.5  billion —$6.2  billion higher than our estimate under the administration ’s projections.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 27, 2021 - The budget includes $8. 1 b illion General Fund in Golden State Stimulus  II payments, the second round of state direct payments to lower ‑income taxpayers. Under the second round, the state will send payments to an estimated 14. 2 m illion taxpayers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4448