How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Revenues regained their nominal levels in 55 months after the dot-com bubble, 53 months following the global financial crisis, and 40 months after the 2022 rate hike drawdown. Multi-year revenue declines amplify the strain on the state budget during major market downturns.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Revenues regained their nominal levels in 55 months after the dot-com bubble, 53 months following the global financial crisis, and 40 months after the 2022 rate hike drawdown. Multi-year revenue declines amplify the strain on the state budget during major market downturns.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - We Estimate the Administration Solved a Larger Budget Problem —$58   Billion. While the Governor cited a budget problem of $38  billion, we estimate the administration solved a budget problem of $58  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q2) [EconTax Blog]

Aug 18, 2025 - Preliminary Total for 2024-25: $58 Million. For firearm and ammunition excise tax returns filed for 2024-25, the total amount of tax due is $58 million —a bit lower than the budget package revenue assumption.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/836

The 2022-23 Budget: Update on K-12 Student Attendance

May 11, 2022 - As   Figure  3 shows, year ‑to ‑year declines in statewide enrollment and attendance were relatively modest prior to the pandemic. The  enrollment declines in 2020 ‑21 and 2021 ‑ 22 —2 .6  percent and 2.4  percent, respectively —are the largest since 1978 ‑79 (2.8  percent).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4595

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

2022-23 Fiscal Outlook Revenue Estimates [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2021 - Whereas revenues grew over 30 percent in 2020-21, our main forecast has growth drop to 8 percent in 2021-22, fall further to about 2 percent in 2022-23, and then becomes slightly negative in 202 3-24.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/712

MOU Fiscal Analysis: Bargaining Unit 6 (Corrections)

Jun 23, 2025 - When CalHR did release a compensation study of Unit 6 compensation in 2023 (referred to as the 2022 compensation study because it relies on data from 2022), we were highly critical of the methodology adopted for the study.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5058

MOU Fiscal Analysis: Bargaining Unit 6 (Corrections) [Publication Details]

Jun 23, 2025 - MOU Fiscal Analysis: Bargaining Unit 6 (Corrections) [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5058