California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California. New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk December 15, 2022 Tweet Gabriel PetekLegislative Analyst Persistent high inflation presents federal and state policymakers with an economic problem not seen in roughly four decades.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

Apr 26, 2022 - Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4590

A Framework for Allocating Federal Recovery Funds

May 4, 2021 - A Framework for Allocating Federal Recovery Funds Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California. A Framework for Allocating Federal Recovery Funds May 4, 2021 Tweet Gabriel PetekLegislative Analyst In the coming months, the Legislature will face important decisions over how to use California ’s share of the state fiscal recovery funds included in the American Rescue Plan (ARP).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4422